hazard

a source of danger; a possibility of incurring loss or misfortune; "drinking alcohol is a health hazard"

an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to result one way rather than another; "bad luck caused his downfall"; "we ran into each other by pure chance"

an obstacle on a golf course

put forward, of a guess, in spite of possible refutation; "I am guessing that the price of real estate will rise again"; "I cannot pretend to say that you are wrong"

put at risk; "I will stake my good reputation for this"

take a risk in the hope of a favorable outcome; "When you buy these stocks you are gambling"